Will Pittsburgh Steelers win more than 9 Games?

August 3, 2020

The Steelers have a somewhat mixed schedule in 2020 affecting their season win total. Of their 16 games, 10 will come against teams that won eight or fewer games in 2019. However, some of those teams are expected to improve in 2020, with nine of their opponents projected to win more than eight games in 2020.

Their schedule has a somewhat soft start with a trip to the Giants and then the Broncos at home. However, from Week 3 until their bye in Week 8, the schedule is an arduous task with all six opponents projected to win at least eight games. If they can get through that stretch then the second half of the schedule is somewhat softer, with six of their games coming against opponents that finished under .500 in 2019.

Key points of emphasis on the schedule

The Steelers schedule is somewhat friendly in that they only have two spots where they are at a disadvantage. However, both of those spots come against the Joe Burrow-led Cincinnati Bengals, who many expect to have another tough year in 2020. While that could make two potentially simple games tougher, it also lessens the blow of the disadvantage of facing a team coming off their bye or when on back-to-back road games.

Meanwhile, the Steelers have two spots on their schedule where they are at an advantage, and they both come against teams that should provide them a serious test. In Week 5, they will get the advantage of facing the Philadelphia Eagles on the second of back-to-back road games for the Eagles. However, that advantage is somewhat negated by the Steelers and Eagles playing in the same state, making this close to a home game for the Eagles.

The other big point of advantage for the Steelers comes against the Dallas Cowboys coming out of their bye week. The Cowboys game finishes off a run of six games against teams projected to win eight or more games in 2020, so having that off the back of a bye should give the Steelers an optimal opportunity to come out of a tough game with a victory.

Suggested Bets

Current win total: 9 

The Steelers are a fascinating team entering 2020. Coming off the back of an 8-8 season in which they were carried largely by their defense, they have a real chance to make a statement in the AFC North in 2020. My colleague Cole Thompson believes that given the high likelihood that their defense regresses in 2020, they will struggle to even match their win total of eight from last season, projecting them to have a 7-9 record in 2020.

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However, while it is true that their record in 2019 was on the back of a stunning and potentially unrepeatable defensive performance, their offense should be able to step up in 2020. Last time we saw Roethlisberger healthy he led the NFL in passing yards for the season with 5,129 in 2018. The fact this team managed to achieve an 8-8 season with the incompetence on offense we saw in 2019 was close to a miracle.

Therefore, while their defense will likely take a step or two further back next season, their offense should be able to step up into the spotlight. Dionte Johnson graded as the 12th best receiver in the league according to Pro Football Network’s Offensive Share Metric, despite playing with bad quarterback play. Having Roethlisberger on the field should also help elevate a running game that had to face stacked boxes plenty in 2019, as teams did not respect the quarterback play.

With expectations of offensive improvements in 2020, nine wins feel like a floor for what the Steelers should achieve. Therefore, with a projected upside on those nine wins in my model, I will lay a unit on the Steelers to top that season win total in 2020.

1u – Pittsburgh Steelers (over 9)
2020 regular season win total | -110